Notes on markets, supply chains, technology, and the ideas that connect them.
April 10, 2026
For the first time in recorded history, all four material pillars of modern civilisation are disrupted simultaneously. The S&P 500 is two percent from all-time highs.
May 13, 2025
Most advice about investing follows a standard template: diversify, dollar-cost average, gradually reduce risk as you age. This advice isn't wrong, but it misses something important.
April 10, 2025
Our quest for artificial intelligence has become a high-stakes standardized test—and we might be studying for the wrong exam.
March 31, 2025
"What if?" my wife whispered on our balcony, the sounds of our sleeping children drifting through the open window. "What if we're really having a third?"
March 28, 2025
"The future belongs to those who consume the most tokens." This line, casually dropped by a friend, has been rattling around in my head for weeks. It's not just a clever play on Silicon Valley jargon—it's the most concise expression I've found of the economic transformation happening around us. He wasn't talking about cryptocurrencies, but computational inference—the resources required to run AI models at scale.
March 28, 2025
This week my feed is flooded with Studio Ghibli images from ChatGPT's 4o update. By the middle of next week, I suspect it will be largely forgotten, replaced by something else equally ephemeral. When I mention it to friends or family outside of my filter bubble, they'll likely have no idea what I'm talking about.
March 27, 2025
Had dinner with a friend who's CFO at a large CPG company. Told him about "vibe coding" - using AI tools like Cursor to build products with minimal coding experience. He got it immediately.
March 26, 2025
I signed up for Cursor yesterday. It's impressive how easy it is to deploy code with AI tools now. A decade ago, the limiting factor in building software was often writing the code itself. Now it's something else entirely.
March 25, 2025
I stumbled across a "chaos coding" class today during lunch. Not just any class—one taught by my good friend Aaron Wright, who I recently spent time with at ETH Denver.