A public reasoning archive

Big ideas, specific bets, and rabbit holes.

Philosophy
──── 01
Most of life's returns compound at the edges. The comfortable middle (in portfolios, in careers, in opinions) is the riskiest place to be.
One tail

The quiet things that compound for decades: scarce real estate, daily training, physical books, your family and 'friends for life'.

The other tail

Concentrated bets on the frontier, AI and crypto and the research underneath.

Chris Cable
Principal

Chris Cable

I've had my share of wins. But luck and skill look identical while they're happening, and you only learn which one you had long after. The investors worth learning from worked this out the same way: they put the reasoning on the record before the outcome, where it could be judged. That's what this is. I write things down before they resolve, keep the memos honest even when the verdict is no, and chase the rabbit holes I fall into.